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分析:2020年全球煤电容量首次下降

全球燃煤发电规模有史以来首次减小,在2020年上半年淘汰的煤电装机容量超过了新增装机容量。 这是根据全球能源监测(GEM)最新的全球燃煤电厂跟踪项目(GCPT)调查研究得出的结论,该调查是我们上个月完成的,并在此首次报告。 2020年上半年煤电装机容量下降了2.9吉瓦(2.9GW),全球煤电装机总量因此下降至2047吉瓦(2047 GW)。这次煤电装机容量下降的原因有几个:印度煤电萎缩,新冠病毒大流行导致煤电投产速度减慢,以及欧盟加强污染法规力度,强制大量煤电关停。 尽管如此,我们的新数据显示,全球仍在建煤电项目装机容量达到189.8吉瓦(189.8GW),另外还有331.9吉瓦(331.9GW)的项目正在规划中。这与联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯(António Guterres)要求在2020年后全球停止新建燃煤电厂的呼吁背道而驰。 2020年上半年,新的燃煤电厂开发主要集中在中国。在世界上许多地方都搁置煤电计划后,中国却有更多的燃煤发电规划与核准。 在中国以外,世界上正在运行中的燃煤发电装机容量已在2018年达到顶峰—这一趋势在中国境外目前似乎保持得不错,因为煤电淘汰容量一直是超过计划投产容量的。这种转变意味着全球运营中的煤电机组有一半现在都在中国了,这是前所未有的。 尽管全球燃煤发电有所减少,但要实现全球气候目标仍需要更快地减少煤电的使用。在这十年中,如果要把全球升温控制在2度以下,我们必须至少把煤电发电量减少一半;如果要把全球升温控制在1.5度以下, 煤电发电量则需要减少四分之三。 2020年首次降低 今年前六个月淘汰的煤电装机容量超过了投产装机容量,创下了历史纪录。从1月1日至6月30日,有18.3吉瓦新煤电项目投产,而退役的煤电装机容量则达到21.2吉瓦 (21.2GW),导致全球燃煤发电装机容量净减少2.9吉瓦 (2.9GW),如下图所示。 2015年上半年至2020年上半年全球煤电装机容量的净变化(红线)。净变化的组成部分里,新增装机用浅蓝色柱状图、退役装机用深蓝色柱状图显示,数据是基于全球燃煤电厂追踪项目的半年期更新报告。资料来源:《全球燃煤电厂追踪》,2020年7月。相比之下,从2000年至2019年的20年之中,全球煤电装机容量平均每六个月增长25吉瓦(25GW)。 2020年新投产的煤电分别由中国11.4吉瓦(11.4GW)和日本1.8吉瓦(1.8GW)引领,德国也新投产了1.1 吉瓦(1.1GW)的戴特恩燃煤电厂,不过因为德国计划在2038年之前逐步淘汰煤炭,戴特恩燃煤电厂也会在此之前被关停。 就2020年上半年的煤电退役情况而言,大部分出现在欧盟27国加上英国(-8.3吉瓦)—具体情况下面将详细讨论,其次是美国(-5.4吉瓦)和中国(-1.7吉瓦)。 2020年上半年是全球首次出现煤电装机整体下滑(下图中的实线),而除了中国以外的世界各国煤电装机容量自2018年以来一直处于下降趋势(虚线)。 2000年至2020年上半年全球燃煤发电装机容量的净变化(黑色实线)。各个国家/地区的新增装机容量(正数)和退役装机容量(负数)用彩色柱状图显示。资料来源:《全球燃煤电厂追踪》,2020年7月。图表来源:《碳简报》使用Highcharts绘制。 中国境外的这种煤电下行趋势很可能会持续下去:到2024年,大约98.6吉瓦的燃煤发电预计将被淘汰,超过目前正在建设的91.3吉瓦的煤电项目。 (中国境外燃煤电厂的平均建设时间为五年。) 欧盟推动煤电下行 全球燃煤发电下行的主要推手是欧盟和英国,2020年上半年净装机容量下降了8.3吉瓦。这是有记录以来最大的半年期下降值,只有2016年全年的净值减少可以与之相比,在12个月内减少了8.7吉瓦(请参见下表)。欧盟计划在今年下半年关闭另外6.0吉瓦煤电,由此欧盟将有望在2020年全年创下年度煤电退役的新纪录。 2000年至2020年上半年欧盟+英国煤电装机容量的净变化(黑色实线)。各个国家/地区的新增装机容量(正数)和退役装机容量(负数)用彩色柱状图显示。资料来源:《全球燃煤电厂追踪》 Global Coal Plant Tracker,2020年7月。图表来源:《碳简报》使用 Highcharts绘制。 欧盟和英国大举淘汰煤电,主要是受到欧盟碳配额价格上涨和污染法规收紧的影响,两者都降低了燃煤电厂的盈利能力。 2020年上半年,欧盟27国的煤炭使用量下降了32%。新冠病毒大流行导致电力需求下降,而燃煤电厂由于较高的运营成本受到较大影响。 电力公司EDP因为自营燃煤电厂的盈利能力下降,最近宣布关闭两家在葡萄牙的燃煤电厂,使该国有望在2021年实现能源使用无煤化,比计划整整提前了两年。 Could Germany's coal fleet be largely closed by mid-2020s?@davidfickling says yes"With benchmark...

Major tropical cyclones have become ‘15% more likely’ over past 40 years

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Guest post: Why would anyone finance another coal power plant in China?

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The Carbon Brief Interview: Benjamin Sporton

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Food systems responsible for ‘one third’ of human-caused emissions

“Food systems” were responsible for 34% of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions in 2015, according to new research. The study, published in Nature Food, presents...

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