Sources of uncertainty in long-term global scenarios of solar photovoltaic technology

Nature Climate Change, Published online: 03 March 2021; doi:10.1038/s41558-021-00998-8

Analysis of 1,550 future energy scenarios finds that uncertainty in solar photovoltaic (PV) uptake is mainly driven by institutional differences in designing and modelling these scenarios, rather than PV cost assumptions. This suggests more organizational diversity is needed in IPCC scenario design.