Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming


Nature Climate Change, Published online: 06 June 2022; doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01372-y

Halting emissions does not immediately stop warming as atmospheric concentrations continue to warm the planet. This study shows society may already be committed to exceeding 1.5 °C peak warming with 42% probability; delaying cuts increases this to 66% in 2029 for all scenarios.