Climate change made French heatwave ‘at least 5 times likelier’

July 2nd, 2019

The record-breaking heatwave in France that disrupted life across the European powerhouse was made five times more likely due to human-induced climate change, scientists have found.

Last
week, the French weather forecaster Meteo France observed the
country’s highest ever recorded temperature of 45.9C at
Gallargues-le-Montueux in southeastern
France.

According to an analysis carried out for the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network, the heat wave was made at least five times more likely due to climate change.

An examination of the highest three-day averaged daily mean temperature in June for both the whole of France and Toulouse indicated a very large increase in the temperature of these heat waves.

Ironically, Toulouse was chosen as most of the WWA experts were at a conference in the city on extreme events and climate change. In addition, Toulouse was forecast to reach record temperatures and is close to the region that experienced peak temperatures.

The
researchers, including Peter Stott from the UK Met Office, compared
their observations of June temperatures with various climate models
that indicate how the climate would appear without the human
influence.

The
analysis found that every heatwave occurring in Europe today is now
made “more likely and more intense” by human-induced climate
change.

“The observations and almost all models show a large increase in the probability of heat waves like the one observed in June 2019,” the analysis added.

The heatwave struck many other states across Europe during the last week of June 2019, breaking records in Switzerland, Germany, the Czech Republic and Spain. In Austria and the Netherlands, the whole month of June was the warmest ever recorded.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the “unusually early and exceptionally intensive” heatwave in Europe also posed agricultural, environmental, and health-related threats.

While
the agency said that
it
is “premature” to attribute the heatwave to climate change, it
said that
the Europe-wide
event
is
consistent with predicted climate scenarios that forecast more
frequent, intense and drawn out heat events.

If
the trend of high temperatures continues, the WMO has said that 2019
will be on track to be among the world’s hottest years, making the
2015 – 2019 period the hottest on record.

The
European
heatwave
follows episodes of intense heat this year that have taken place
around the world, namely in India, Pakistan, Australia, and parts of
the Middle East.

“This increase in heat extremes is just as predicted by climate science,” Stefan Rahmstorf of the Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said.

“While in Europe we worry about reaching 40 degrees Celsius this week, India has seen temperature records above 50 C recently,” he added.

Record high in France

The
average temperature across the country was 27.9C last Thurday, the
highest value observed for the entire month
of June.
A weather forecast map last week displaying the high temperatures by
Meteociel seemed to resemble a skull, which French meteorologist
Ruben Hallali likened to Edvard Munch’s painting “The Scream”
on
Twitter.

A
red hazardous weather warning was placed over southeastern parts of
the country, the first ever of its kind to be put in place for the
region. It’s the most severe classification out of a four level
alert system that was established in the wake of 2003 heatwave that
killed 15,000 people, according to the
Associated Press.

The
state-run rail operator SNCF offered exchanges and free cancellations
for long-distance trips and social workers assisted homeless people
in coping with the heat. The greater Paris region, Île-de-France,
banned over half of cars from its roads as the temperatures worsened
air quality, according
to Reuters. 

Three
elderly French people were
reported
to have died after suffering cardiac arrests while swimming. Some
4,000 schools were either
closed
or paritially running and national secondary school exams were
postponed
by the education minister due to safety concerns.

The
heatwave, according to Paris inhabitant Martin Fox, was “expected
in many ways because it’s been happening almost every year so far.”

“For precautions, it’s knowing when not to go out, always drinking water, and if it gets really hot, to go to rooms which have tiled surfaces,” he told The Green News.

Deaths
in Spain

To
date, two
deaths
have been reported in Spain as a consequence of the stifling heat. A
17-year-old boy died from heat-related causes last
Friday after jumping into a swimming pool to cool down outside of
Cordoba. The day before, 93 year old man collapsed and died due to
the heat’s intensity in Valladolid.

The
Spanish national meteorological and hydrological agency AEMET
issued a heat red alert as temperatures surpassed 40 C in parts of
northern Spain. The capital Madrid also recorded all-time high
temperatures for
the month of June
on Friday.

Madrid
resident Victoria Vallejo told The
Green News that
the intense heat made it difficult to function in the city. “I had
to go to the doctor because my blood pressure was really low due to
the heat,” she said. “You can definitely tell that people are
scared, but hopefully it’s ending soon.

Wildfires
raged in the Catalan region of the country, making it the biggest
forest fire of the year. More than 1,200 hectares
burned in under 24 hours and some 400 people fled their homes, the
BBC reported.

The regional interior minister Miquel Buch said that the fire, ignited by improperly stored chicken manure, was the region’s worst in two decades.

Europe-wide problem

Other
parts of the continent certainly weren’t spared from the wave of
high temperatures. The Italian Health Ministry declared
seven cities to be enduring the country’s highest heat warning
level on Thursday. By Friday, 16
cities were under alert. 

Austria
is expected to clock in its warmest June on record and more than half
of Switzerland’s observing temperature
stations noted new June temperature records last week. This
includes
Davos,
according to to the
WMO, hitting
29.8 C despite being 1,594
metres above
sea level.

The
German forecaster Deutscher Wetterdienst announced that
a
new national June temperature record of 39.6 C was set on the last
day of the month. Highway speed limits were reduced when road
surfaces started to decline and some areas of the country faced
water shortages. 

In
addition, Doksany
in the Czech Republic reently
recorded
a new national high tempreature of 38.9 C. 

Heatwaves
can acutely impact large populations for short periods of time, the
World Health Organization (WHO) says,
frequently triggering public health emergencies that lead to lost
work capacity, reduced labour productivity, and death. 

High
temperatures can also limit the health service’s capacity, as
heatwave-induced power shortages disrupt health facilities, water
infrastructure, and transport. They can also worsen existing chronic
conditions, such as cardiovascular, respiratory, and diabetes-related
conditions.

The
scale and nature of health impacts vary around the world, depending
on the timing, intensity and duration of a heatwave, as well as how
well local populations are adaptable and acclimatized. In the case of
last week’s heatwave, the WMO noted
that initial reports indicate heat-health early warnings successfully
limited the death toll.

If the trend of high temperatures continues, the WMO has said that 2019 will be on track to be among the world’s hottest years, making the 2015 – 2019 period the hottest on record.

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