‘Worst-case’ CO2 emissions scenario is best for assessing climate risk and impacts to 2050

The RCP 8.5 carbon emissions pathway is the most appropriate for conducting assessments of climate change impacts by 2050, according to a new article. Long dismissed as an alarmist or misleading worst-case scenario, the authors argue that is actually the closest approximation of both historical emissions and anticipated outcomes of current global climate policies, tracking within 1% of actual emissions.