Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient

Nature Climate Change, Published online: 26 October 2020; doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00933-3

The east–west gradient in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature has strengthened, but models suggest the opposite in past and future climates. Model ensembles show that the observed trend can arise from internal variability but their gradient weakens in the long term, causing more climate warming.