4 August 2021
Climate campaigners have worked for years in Ireland
to see this kind of legislation enacted. Once proposed by the Government, the Bill
went through months of campaigning, debating, and amendment-adding.
Now that the Climate Action Bill was signed into law just two weeks ago, what do we need to
know about it? And what happens now?
We read, called experts, and dug into the legislation
to get into the nitty-gritty of it all.
First things first – what do I need to know about the Bill?
In a nutshell, the Bill to is intended to approve
plans that pursue ‘the transition to a climate resilient, biodiversity rich and
climate neutral economy’ by 2050.
Some key elements of it include putting targets into
law through carbon budgets and the establishment of both a Climate Change
Advisory Council and Climate Action Plan. That plan is expected to be released
this autumn, and the targets will be held accountable by sector and local
authorities.
What’s really important to keep in mind here is that this
legislation doesn’t include the specifics. According to Friends of the Earth Ireland Director Oisín
Coghlan, it sets the rules of the game and but can’t determine the outcome.
In other words, this Act determines how to make
the climate policy, check that policy and ensure that it’s being implemented.
It’s not detailing the specific actions that will be undertaken.
So while activists will still have to campaign for
policies, there are now legal targets the government must meet. Now “there’s a
process that is more transparent, more evidence-based and more accountable than
ever before,” Mr. Coghlan told The Green News.
These legal targets are known as carbon budgets. The first two of these budgets must reduce emissions by 51 per cent from 2018 levels by 2030.
(Side note: you might remember that back in April a number of experts voiced their concern over language in the Bill around a 51 per cent emissions reduction by the end of the decade. Check that piece out for the full explanation.)
Okay, so carbon budgets are a key component of this Bill.
But I’m still a little unsure of what a carbon budget actually is.
To start, it has nothing to do with money. The reason
why it is called a budget, is because generally we already have an
understanding of what a budget is.
“When we budget for money, we only have this much
money and this is how to spend it,” Mr. Coghlan said. “So the point of a carbon
budget is we can only burn this much carbon.”
As it is set out in the Bill, the carbon budget, “will
be a number that covers a five-year period and the total amount of greenhouse
gas emissions that Ireland is allowing itself to emit,” according to MaREI
Director Professor Brian O Gallachoir.
Initially, three numbers will be proposed by the
Climate Change Advisory Council. These will represent the budgeted amount for
the 2021-2025, 2025-2030 and 2030-2035 periods. Though only the targets for the
next 10 years will be adopted by the Oireachtas.
The way it’s set up, “the council always give us 15
years’ worth of five-year targets and the parliament will always adopt 10
years’ worth of targets” in Mr. Coghlan’s own words.
Though determining these numbers is complicated.
“While it sounds simple to produce three numbers for
three, five-year carbon budgets, it’s complex,” said Prof O Gallachoir.
The numbers must be weighed against several
considerations including climate science, the EU policy perspective, the Paris
agreement, and implications for the economy and jobs.
How important is the first budget and what should we
look for?
The first carbon budget is “critically important” according
to Prof O Gallachoir. This budget sets out a clear short-term ambition and is a
driver of action.
“The carbon budgets are very clear, enshrining of the
collective targets that we’re all aiming for,” Prof O Gallachoir explained. “The
failure to meet the first carbon budgets, would be very damaging.”
Currently, Ireland emits roughly 60 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent each year. So a carbon budget that would be at a ‘stand still’ would
allow for 300 million tonnes of CO2 to be emitted.
Coghlan would like to see a carbon budget of 250
million tonnes for the first five years and 175 million tonnes for the
following five years. So that would be 425 million tonnes for the next ten
years. Though Coghlan admits, “that’s probably optimistic.”
The Bill doesn’t set incremental targets, so there is a potential for emissions reductions to be back-logged. Otherwise, each year might see an annual reduction target of 7 per cent.
But emissions reductions won’t be seen evenly each
year. This is in-part because it takes time to implement emission-reductions. Simply
put, public transport, retrofitted houses and wind turbines can’t be built overnight.
So careful planning and implantation are necessary to
see these targets through. As Mr. Coghlan says, “you can’t expect to halve
emissions in five years. It just isn’t physically possible.”
So we can expect carbon budgets to determine emissions
– but how will sectors be held accountable?
This is what has “changed the whole dynamic”,
according to Oisin Coghlan.
Now, once the carbon budgets are implemented, each
sector negotiates for their “slice of the pollution pie”.
“Emissions reductions are easier to achieve in some sectors
compared with others,” Prof O Gallachoir explained, who also noted that “emission
reductions have different impacts in the different sectors.”
This understanding this is key to establish the
expectations of each sector in the carbon budget.
For example, agriculture contributes more than any other sector, with 33 per cent of overall emissions. A current roadmap for the sector suggests this sector might reduce their emissions by 10 per cent by 2030.
But if that’s all they do, the rest of the economy will “have to reduce emissions, pretty much by three quarters to meet the overall target of 51 per cent”, Mr. Coghlan said.
Hannah Daly and Paul Deane highlighted this in a piece for the Sunday Business Post, who also found that “in effect, it would require a much higher level of effort in the sectors outside of agriculture to compensate.”
It’s thus crucial that “every sector does its fair
share,” he added. Rather than a presumption that a sector may do less than the
average, it would need to justify why less action should be taken.
But what happens if the targets are not met?
It would set off a “hamster wheel of embarrassment”, joked
Mr. Coghlan.
While the targets are binding, it’s just “parliamentary
accountability” and “political embarrassment” that keep the minister and government
in check, he said.
Well, that and the looming possibility to end up in
court in targets are not met.
Lastly, what’s next? What are we looking forward to
seeing with this Bill?
Though this has been repeatedly lauded as landmark
legislation, that doesn’t mean the work is over.
“We set ourselves a high ambition, we’ve legally
enshrined it. And now, the next steps will determine how that ambition is
translated into action,” explained Prof O Gallachoir.
In the upcoming months we will begin to see the detail
that emerges from this broad legislation.
“But policies by themselves don’t deliver the action,”
reminded Prof O Gallachoir. He argues that there is a need for both evidence-based
policy, but also societal buy-in.
So, after this “significant change” in the political
landscape, Prof O Gallachoir thinks “it’s important to acknowledge and
celebrate that. But not to take our eye off the ball, which is to translate
that now into action.”
Coghlan echoed that sentiment, “if we delay action any
longer, we aren’t doing our fair share.”
By Sam Starkey
The post The Climate Action Bill recently became law. Now what? appeared first on Green News Ireland.
