A geophysical commitment to warming over 1.5 °C by 2029 after cessation of emissions

Source: Nature.com

Nature Climate Change, Published online: 06 June 2022; doi:10.1038/s41558-022-01375-9

Following a complete cessation of anthropogenic emissions, global warming will continue before cooling. We modelled this zero-emissions scenario in the context of realistic emissions pathways and revealed an existing commitment to temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming thresholds half a decade before these targets would have otherwise been reached.