August 3rd, 2017
Future climate change is expected to cause about 60,000 additional deaths from air pollution in the year 2030 and 260,000 deaths in 2100, according to a new research published in Nature Climate Change.
The study – conducted by a team of scientists at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill – was one of the most comprehensive of its kind to date, using data from several atmospheric chemistry and climate models.
The findings add to the expanding evidence that climate change will have an overwhelmingly negative impact on human health across the globe.
“As climate change affects air pollutant concentrations, it can have a significant impact on health worldwide, adding to the millions of people who die from air pollution each year, ” said Jason West, who led the research.
Ozone and particulates
The team of researchers calculated the increased mortality risk caused by higher concentrations of ground-level ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM) from increases in air temperatures.
Ground level ozone is the main component of smog and forms when nitrogen dioxides (NOx) and volatile organic compound (VOCs) react in the atmosphere in the presence of sunlight.
Increased air temperatures translates to an increase in energy within the atmosphere and this energy accelerates chemical reactions that create ozone and other air pollutants.
PM is a complex mixture of solid and liquid particles produced from a number of industrial, transport and natural sources.
In addition to increased reaction rates leading to PM formation, drier conditions increase PM abundance due to more fires and windblown dust, and reduced PM removal rates as a result of lower rainfall.
Both ozone and PM cause a variety of health problems, including asthma, reduced lung function, lung and cardiovascular diseases and cancer.
West and co-authors calculated that expected increases in ground level ozone concentrations would lead to about 3,000 deaths in 2030 and 43,600 deaths by 2100.
The potential negative health impacts of PM are even more severe – 55,600 premature deaths in 2030 and 215,000 in 2100.
Business as usual not an option
The latest study is just one of many that predict there will be substantial negative health impacts caused by climate change, unless clear mitigation steps are taken.
Climate change is also expected to affect health through increased heat stress, reduced access to clean water and food, increased frequency and severity of storms and more widespread occurrence of infectious diseases.
While the study paints a bleak future scenario for human health, the authors highlight that effective climate change mitigation will very likely reduce air-pollution related mortality.
