Election 2017: What the manifestos say on energy and climate change

On 8 June, the UK will head to the polls for the third time in as many years. In an election dominated by Brexit, Carbon Brief will be tracking the climate change and energy content of parties’ manifestos, as they are launched.

First out of the blocks was the Green Party, with a dedicated seven-page environment manifesto published on 11 May. The Labour Party saw a draft of its plans leaked on the same day. Its official manifesto launch came on 16 May, as did Plaid Cymru’s “Action Plan 2017“.

You can navigate around the grid, above, to explore the parties’ climate and energy plans. For comparison, switch between tabs in the top left of the grid, to see what the parties said before the last election in 2015. If you prefer, you can view the spreadsheet directly.

Carbon Brief has a thematic summary of the 2017 manifestos, followed by analysis of the main parties’ most eye-catching pledges. We will update this grid as more manifestos are published.

Brexit background

The 8 June election, called three years early as prime minister Theresa May seeks to bank her substantial lead in the polls, is taking place against a background dominated by debate over the UK’s exit from the European Union.

The approach to Brexit negotiations will have significant implications for the UK’s climate and energy policy, from how energy is traded across borders to the regulation of power plant emissions.

May’s current approach to the talks, taking a hard line against jurisdiction for the European Court of Justice, could even see the UK withdraw from the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). She has already indicated a withdrawal from Euratom, the European nuclear treaty.

Labour and the Green Party both pledge to ensure existing environmental rules are maintained during the Brexit process. Plaid Cymru hopes to “build upon” these rules. Labour hopes to maintain access to the EU internal energy market and retain membership of Euratom.

Climate change

Despite the hopes of some groups, climate change has barely featured as an election issue so far. However, Labour and the Green Party both reiterate a commitment to tackling the problem. Labour says it will “reclaim Britain’s leading role”, while the Greens say:

“With 2016 the hottest year on record, and a climate-denier in the White House, the need for bold and dynamic action on climate change has never been more urgent.”

Plaid says the British government is “neglecting its international duty to reduce…emissions”. It wants a new Climate Change Act, with “ambitious but achievable” targets for 2030 and 2050.

Language in Labour’s leaked draft saying tackling climate change is “non-negotiable” is missing in the published manifesto. However, it has added Labour’s determination to “disagree” in the face of a “Trump administration…breaking its climate change commitments”.

Energy bills

Domestic energy policy hit the front pages in April after the Conservatives adopted Labour’s 2015 pledge to cap energy bills, despite having called it “Marxist” and “dangerous” at the time.

Both Labour and the Conservatives therefore go into this election promising to cap energy bills, potentially signalling a more interventionist approach to energy policy. It’s worth repeating that energy bills in 2016 were actually lower than in 2008, though they have risen somewhat this year.

Between 2008 and 2016, increases in bills due to carbon pricing and subsidies for low-carbon energy have been more than offset by savings due to energy efficiency, according to the the Committee on Climate Change. However, the number of insulation measures going into homes has fallen by nearly 90% over the past decade, putting further bill savings in doubt.

The government had planned to insulate one million homes over five years to 2020. The Labour manifesto promises to insulate four million homes “as an infrastructure priority”. The Green Party wants to insulate 9m homes, as part of “a national programme of insulation and retrofitting”.

The Greens pledge to reintroduce zero-carbon home standards that would be binding from 2020, while Labour will consult on what such standards should be.

The UK Green Building Council says 25m homes will need to be insulated by 2050, at the rate of more than one every minute, if the UK is to meet its climate targets.

Sources of energy

Both Labour and the Greens would ban fracking for shale gas. Labour says fracking “would lock us into an energy infrastructure based on fossil fuels, long after the point in 2030 when the Committee on Climate Change [CCC] says gas in the UK must sharply decline”. [For more on the CCC’s views on fracking, check out this previous Carbon Brief article].

Labour, the Greens and Plaid Cymru all back an expansion of renewables, with Labour including an ambitious pledge to source 60% of the UK’s heat and power from zero-carbon or renewable sources by 2030. See the Labour section, below, for more details.

The Greens ask for an end to the “effective ban on onshore wind – the cheapest form of new electricity generation”. Plaid says Wales should aim to generate 100% of its power from renewables by 2035 and backs a series of tidal lagoons around the Welsh coast.

Labour says it “will support further [new] nuclear projects” while the Greens want to “end the reckless gamble with nuclear”.

The Greens also want to bring forward plans to phase out unabated coal-fired electricity to 2023 “at the latest” and “keep fossil fuels…in the ground”. Plaid says we are “far too reliant on fossil fuels”.

Labour clean energy target

The Labour manifesto pledges to “take energy back into public ownership” as part of wider plans to renationalise essential infrastructure. It says national and regional grid infrastructure would be “brought into public ownership over time” and that “the alteration of operator license conditions” would return “control” of energy networks to public hands.

One of the most eye-catching element of Labour’s manifesto is a pledge to source 60% of the UK’s heat and power from zero-carbon or renewable sources by 2030. This pledge was previously set out in November 2016 by then-shadow BEIS secretary Clive Lewis. It does not include all energy use, even though the manifesto says “60% of the UK’s energy”. In fact, transport is excluded.

Just to confirm, having checked with Labour, that its 2030 energy target is 60% of heat/power to be low-carbon or renewable (=Nov16 pledge)

— Simon Evans (@DrSimEvans) May 11, 2017

On what counts as zero-carbon, the manifesto backs new nuclear and “state-of-the-art low-carbon gas”. Last year, Labour launched a Green Gas Book, exploring ways to decarbonise heat through renewable biogas or using hydrogen combined with carbon capture and storage.

A chapter by prospective parliamentary candidate Alan Whitehead, until recently shadow energy and climate minister, says heat is the “Cinderella of decarbonisation measures”. He notes that gas provides the vast majority of home heat and must be addressed to meet carbon targets.

The 60% zero-carbon and renewable energy target extends a pledge, made by Jeremy Corbyn last year, to source 65% of UK electricity from renewables by 2030. This drew on 2011 modelling from consultants Pöyry, which envisaged up to 65% of power coming from renewables, with another 18% from nuclear and 5% from CCS, for a total of 88% low-carbon or renewable electricity.

For comparison, the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) central scenario for meeting the UK’s fifth carbon budget has low-carbon and renewable power supply 76% of total demand in 2030, with the remainder from gas. The CCC’s “high low-carbon” scenario includes 88% low-carbon by 2030.

The 60% Labour target also includes 40% of heat energy coming from low-carbon sources by 2030. This would represent a substantial increase compared to today’s level of around 5%, and a nominal 2020 target of 12%, which a leaked 2015 government letter suggests will be missed.

The 40% low-carbon heat target is highly ambitious. In 2011, the CCC wrote that an increase to 35% renewable heat “is likely to be both feasible and desirable,” and that up to 50% “might be technically feasible”. Since then, the CCC has dramatically pared back its optimism for heat.

This shift reflects slow progress on low-carbon heat to date, as well as less optimistic assumptions on the availability of sustainable biomass. Cost estimates for electric heat pumps have also risen, causing the CCC revise downwards its expectations for 2030 deployment. From 7m in 2011, its projections have fallen to to 4m in 2013 and then 2.5m in the latest 2015 outlook.