Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes


Nature Climate Change, Published online: 26 July 2021; doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01092-9

Changes in extreme heat are often calculated as anomalies above a reference climatology. A different definition—week-day heatwaves surpassing the current record by large margins—shows that their occurrence probabilities depend on warming rate, not level, and are higher than during recent decades.