By STEPH YIN
March 6, 2017
From 2008 to 2015, Volkswagen sold 11 million diesel cars worldwide rigged with software that cheated emissions tests by running the full emissions-control system only if the car sensed a test was underway.
Otherwise, the cars operated without emissions control, releasing more than four times the levels of nitrogen oxides, a class of harmful air pollutants, permitted by European regulation.
Now, scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology estimate that 1,200 people in Europe will die prematurely, each losing as much as a decade of life, because of excess emissions from 2.6 million affected cars sold just in Germany.
All diesel cars produce high levels of nitrogen oxides, or NOx, because they burn fuel at a higher temperature than cars that run on gasoline, said Guillaume Chossière, a research assistant at M.I.T. and lead author of the study.
“The point is what you do with these NOx emissions,” Mr. Chossière said. “Manufacturers can, and should, make them as low as possible by allowing emissions-control devices to work properly.”
To arrive at their estimates, Mr. Chossière and his colleagues calculated excess levels of NOx within Germany by combining data on Volkswagen’s sales, driving behavior and on-road measurements of Volkswagen cars’ emissions.
Then the researchers simulated how NOx emissions might travel over long distances. Based on how much extra NOx people were breathing in across Europe, the researchers estimated increased mortality because of cardiopulmonary and respiratory diseases.
About 500 early deaths will take place in Germany, the researchers reported, while 700 will occur in neighboring countries like Poland, France and the Czech Republic.
The scientists also predicted that by recalling and fixing these cars to meet European emissions limits by the end of 2017, Volkswagen could avert 2,600 additional premature deaths and save 4.1 billion euros in health costs.
Andreas Meurer, a spokesman for Volkswagen, said that investigations by the German, French and British governments had found that emissions from the company’s vehicles “are comparable with, and in many cases even better, than those of our competitors.”
While that may be true of Volkswagen’s most recent generation of cars, the company can still significantly cut emissions by removing test recognition software from older models, Mr. Chossière said. Such software has been outlawed in the United States, but still occupies a legal gray area in Europe.
“A natural next step for us is to focus on excess emissions by all manufacturers,” Mr. Chossière added. “Europe has very severe air quality issues, and enforcing standards in diesel cars should be considered as a first step toward cleaner air.”
