Robust decrease in El Niño/Southern Oscillation amplitude under long-term warming

Nature Climate Change, Published online: 30 August 2021; doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01099-2

The impact of climate warming on El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude is uncertain in centennial-scale model projections due to internal variability, but an ensemble of millennial-scale simulations suggests decreased ENSO amplitude in the equilibrium response to greenhouse gas forcing.