New research, November 6-12, 2017

Source: SkepticalScience

Posted on 17 November 2017 by Ari Jokimäki

A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below.

The figure is from paper #32.

Climate change impacts

1. Nitrogen availability dampens the positive impacts of CO2 fertilization on terrestrial ecosystem carbon and water cycles

Results suggest that the rate of global GPP increase is overestimated by 85% during 2000-2015 without N limitation. This limitation is found to occur in many tropical and boreal forests, where a negative leaf N trend indicates a reduction in photosynthetic capacity, thereby suppressing the positive vegetation response to enhanced CO2 fertilization.

2. Climatic variability and dengue risk in urban environment of Delhi (India)

Findings reveal significant changes in weather across the year having significant and positive association with dengue cases at specified lags. Weeks in April and July to October with gaps have been identified as the high risk weeks based on the estimated relative risk. There has been intra-annual expansion in dengue risk period extending beyond monsoon and post-monsoon.

3. Introduction to Special Issue: Disciplinary Perspectives on Climate Change and Conflict

These authors find little evidence for direct pathways from climate change to violence, especially for group-level violence and armed conflict. However, there is stronger evidence for indirect effects in agricultural and other vulnerable settings and for exacerbating ongoing violence rather than initiating new violence. The authors also emphasize the importance of governance and institutions, adaptive capacity, and potential cooperative behavior in moderating violence.

4. Flood vulnerability, local perception and gender role judgment using multivariate analysis: A problem-based “participatory action to Future Skill Management” to cope with flood impacts

5. Risk perception and adaptive responses to climate change and climatic variability in northeastern St. Vincent

6. Does weather forecasting relate to foraging productivity? An empirical test among three hunter-gatherer societies

7. Climate change impact on the potential yield of Arabicacoffee in southeast Brazil

8. Potential rice exposure to heat stress along the Yangtze River in China under RCP8.5 scenario

9. Influence of climate variability and length of rainy season on crop yields in semiarid Botswana

10. Increasing drought and diminishing benefits of elevated carbon dioxide for soybean yields across the US Midwest

11. The effects of projected climate and climate extremes on a winter and summer crop in the southeast USA

12. Irrigation offsets wheat yield reductions from warming temperatures

13. Temperature-mortality relationship in dairy cattle in France based on an iso-hygro-thermal partition of the territory

14. Impacts of temperature extremes on European vegetation during the growing season

15. Vegetation phenology on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its response to climate change (1982–2013)

16. Rapid responses of plants to temperature changes

17. Lags in the response of mountain plant communities to climate change

18. Emerging stress and relative resiliency of Giant Sequoia groves experiencing multi-year dry periods in a warming climate

19. Nitrogen limitation of decomposition and decay: how can it occur?

20. Impacts of warming and nitrogen addition on soil autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a semi-arid environment

21. Carbon cycle confidence and uncertainty: exploring variation among soil biogeochemical models

22. Multidecadal fCO2 Increase Along the United States Southeast Coastal Margin

23. The fatty acid content of plankton is changing in subtropical coastal waters as a result of OA: Results from a mesocosm study

24. Ocean acidification does not impair predator recognition but increases juvenile growth in a temperate wrasse off CO2 seeps

25. Participatory scenario planning and climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research in the Arctic

Climate change mitigation

26. How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

We find that direct livestock non-CO2 emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO2 from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010.

27. Role of e-reader adoption in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of book reading activities

Adopting e-readers was discovered to reduce both the GWP per person and the GWP per person-book of book reading activities. The GWP of e-books read with an e-reader and the GWP of paper books were found to break even at 4.7 books per year, provided consumers read less than 11 h a day. According to the web survey, e-reader users purchase more than seven e-books annually on average, which resulted in a smaller GWP per person-book relative to that of one paper book.

28. Climate change, future Arctic Sea ice, and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets

We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.

29. Variability and correlation of renewable energy sources in the Portuguese electrical system

30. Diurnal and seasonal variations of greenhouse gas emissions from a naturally ventilated dairy barn in a cold region

31. Can abandoned peatland pasture sequestrate more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere than an adjacent pristine bog in Newfoundland, Canada?

32. Outdoor cooking prevalence in developing countries and its implication for clean cooking policies

33. An initial scoping of transitional justice for global climate governance

34. Climate Engagement in a Digital Age: Exploring the Drivers of Participation in Climate Discourse Online in the Context of COP21

35. Politicization of science: how climate change skeptics use experts and scientific evidence in their online communication

36. Uncertainties in modelling the climate impact of irrigation

37. Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Different Drainage and Flooding Regimes of Cultivated Peatlands

38. Reduction of solar photovoltaic resources due to air pollution in China

Climate change

39. Changing world extreme temperature statistics

In contrast to this earlier work, we find that in every region except North America all-time high records were set at a rate significantly (at least 3σ) higher than in the null hypothesis of a stationary climate. Except in Antarctica, all-time low records were set at a rate significantly lower than in the null hypothesis. In Europe, North Africa and North Asia the rate of setting new all-time highs increased suddenly in the 1990s, suggesting a change in regional climate regime; in most other regions there was a steadier increase.

40. An energy balance model exploration of the impacts of interactions between surface albedo, cloud cover and water vapor on polar amplification

We examine the effects of non-linear interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and cloud cover (referred to as climate variables) on amplified warming of the polar regions, using a new energy balance model. Our simulations show that the sum of the contributions to surface temperature changes due to any variable considered in isolation is smaller than the temperature changes from coupled feedback simulations. This non-linearity is strongest when all three climate variables are allowed to interact. Surface albedo appears to be the strongest driver of this non-linear behavior, followed by water vapor and clouds. This is because increases in longwave radiation absorbed by the surface, related to increases in water vapor and clouds, and increases in surface absorbed shortwave radiation caused by a decrease in surface albedo, amplify each other. Furthermore, our results corroborate previous findings that while increases in cloud cover and water vapor, along with the greenhouse effect itself, warm the polar regions, water vapor also significantly warms equatorial regions, which reduces polar amplification. Changes in surface albedo drive large changes in absorption of incoming shortwave radiation, thereby enhancing surface warming. Unlike high latitudes, surface albedo change at low latitudes are more constrained. Interactions between surface albedo, water vapor and clouds drive larger increases in temperatures in the polar regions compared to low latitudes. This is in spite of the fact that, due to a forcing, cloud cover increases at high latitudes and decreases in low latitudes, and that water vapor significantly enhances warming at low latitudes.

41. Recent Advances in Our Understanding of the Role of Meltwater in the Greenland Ice Sheet System

There have been dramatic increases in surface meltwater generation and runoff since the early 1990s, both due to increased air temperatures and decreasing surface albedo. Processes in the subglacial drainage system have similarities to valley glaciers and in a warming climate, the efficiency of meltwater routing to the ice sheet margin is likely to increase. The behaviour of the subglacial drainage system appears to limit the impact of increased surface melt on annual rates of ice motion, in sections of the ice sheet that terminate on land, while the large volumes of meltwater routed subglacially deliver significant volumes of sediment and nutrients to downstream ecosystems.

42. Unveiling aerosol–cloud interactions – Part 1: Cloud contamination in satellite products enhances the aerosol indirect forcing estimate

We find that previous satellite-based radiative forcing estimates of aerosol–cloud interactions represented in key climate reports are likely exaggerated by up to 50 % due to including retrieval artefacts in the aerosols located near clouds. It is demonstrated that this retrieval artefact can be corrected in current products.

43. On the emergent constraints of climate sensitivity

The relationships between the contrived metrics and ECS can also be linked statistically to shortwave cloud feedback. Thus any proposed or forthcoming ECS constraint based on the current generation of climate models should be viewed as a potential constraint on shortwave cloud feedback, and physical links with that feedback should be investigated to verify that the constraint is real. In addition, any proposed ECS constraint should not be taken at face value, since other factors influencing ECS besides shortwave cloud feedback could be systematically biased in the models.

44. A consistent sea-level reconstruction and its budget on basin and global scales over 1958-2014

The global-mean sea-level reconstruction shows a trend of 1.5±0.2 mm/y over 1958-2014 (1σ), compared to 1.3±0.1 mm/y for the sum of contributors. Over the same period, the reconstruction shows a positive acceleration of 0.07±0.02 mm/y2, which is also in agreement with the sum of contributors, which shows an acceleration of 0.07±0.01 mm/y2.

45. The impact of bias correction and model selection on passing temperature thresholds

46. Exceptional airmass transport and dynamical drivers of an extreme wintertime Arctic warm event

47. The role of humidity in determining scenarios of perceived temperature extremes in Europe

48. Warming across decades and deciles: minimum and maximum daily temperatures in China, 1955–2014

49. Variations in North Pacific sea surface temperature caused by Arctic stratospheric ozone anomalies

50. How uncertainty in field measurements of ice nucleating particles influences modeled cloud forcing

51. Simulated changes in aridity from the last glacial maximum to 4xCO 2

52. Comparison of various drought indices to monitor drought status in Pakistan

53. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

54. Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany

55. Regional Antarctic snow accumulation over the past 1000 years

56. Snow accumulation variability over the West Antarctic Ice Sheet since 1900: a comparison of ice core records with ERA-20C reanalysis

57. Blowing snow sublimation and transport over Antarctica from 11 years of CALIPSO observations

58. Heat flux distribution of Antarctica unveiled

59. Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss: Recent Developments in Observation and Modeling

60. The modelled liquid water balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

61. Algae drive enhanced darkening of bare ice on the Greenland ice sheet

62. The distribution and hydrological significance of rock glaciers in the Nepalese Himalaya

63. Simulated historical (1901–2010) changes in the permafrost extent and active layer thickness in the Northern Hemisphere

64. A new map of permafrost distribution on the Tibetan Plateau

65. Warmer spring conditions increase annual methane emissions from a boreal peat landscape with sporadic permafrost

66. Hemispheric asymmetry in stratospheric NO2 trends

67. A two-year forecast for a 60-80% chance of La Niña in 2017-18

68. How predictable are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere

69. Regime shift of Indian summer monsoon rainfall to a persistent arid state: external forcing versus internal variability

70. Inflated uncertainty in multi-model based regional climate projections

71. Climate and anthropogenic controls of coastal deoxygenation on interannual to centennial timescales

72. Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview

73. Uncertainty in recent near-surface wind speed trends: a global reanalysis intercomparison

74. A Statistical Study of Unusual Tracks of Tropical Cyclones near Taiwan Island

75. Severity scale for tornadoes

76. Variations of climate, surface energy budget and minimum snow/ice extent over Canadian Arctic landmass for 2000-2016

77. Intrinsic and atmospherically-forced variability of the AMOC: insights from a large ensemble ocean hindcast

Other papers

78. Social Resilience to Climate-Related Disasters in Ancient Societies: A Test of Two Hypotheses

The paper finds that societies allowing greater political participation appear to provide greater resilience to catastrophic climate-related disasters, generally supporting the predominant perspective in contemporary disaster response.

79. The role of African dust in Atlantic climate during Heinrich events

80. Why artificial light at night should be a focus for global change research in the 21st century