Emissions are still linked to growth, despite the figures.

Is it, as Winston Churchill might have said, the end of the beginning? Or is it a false dawn? The International Energy Agency announced on Friday that global emissions of carbon dioxide from energy production in 2016 were flat for the third year running. As the global economy continues solid if moderate growth, this gives hope to some that the link between CO2 release and economic expansion has been broken.

To have a good chance of keeping global warming below 2°C – still a dangerous level – greenhouse gas emissions need to peak soon, then decline by 60 per cent by 2050. The longer emissions keep rising, the more drastic reductions will be required later. If they start dropping in 2020 and fall by 3 per cent per year, that would be enough to hit the target. But few countries have achieved such declines outside war or economic depression.

Why is CO2 pollution flat now? Emissions are the combination of economic growth, the energy intensity of that growth (how much energy to produce a dollar of GDP), and the carbon intensity of that energy (whether, for example, it is produced by dirty coal, medium-carbon gas or by low-carbon nuclear or renewable power).

The world economy has become steadily more energy efficient over time, and it has generally shifted from heavy industry towards less energy-intensive services.

But CO2 and economic growth have not “decoupled”. Economic activity still requires energy, and much of that energy still comes from carbon-containing fossil fuels. For now, efficiency and lower-carbon sources are outpacing growth.

The recent flattening of emissions is largely because of a drop in coal. China, the world’s biggest user, has been turning to hydropower, wind and nuclear power instead, and industrial growth has slowed and matured. The US’s continuing natural gas boom means that last year, for the first time, it generated more electricity from gas than coal. Remarkably, cheap gas, renewable energy and a carbon tax have sent the UK’s coal use down to the level of 1894.

This is not the first time that global emissions have been flat or falling. They did not rise in 1974 and 1975 amid the first oil crisis and recession. They dropped by 3 per cent between 1979 and 1982 during the second oil crisis and another recession. Growth was very slow during the early 1990s as polluting Soviet industry collapsed.

So we should be cautious. Replacing coal with gas can keep emissions falling for some time – but gas still emits some CO2. A squeeze in the gas markets may send users scurrying back to cheap coal. A boost in global economic growth or an industrial take-off in India, both welcome in general, would bring emissions up. The UAE’s nuclear power will cut CO2 while Dubai’s new coal station boosts it.

However much it might lecture the rest of the world, the US has for decades been a rogue nation on climate. Individual states, notably California, have taken action, but the Trump administration is determined to gut action on vehicle-efficiency standards and clean-power generation. Many environmentalists refuse to acknowledge the major role cheap shale gas has played, and will play, in bringing emissions down. But anti-environmentalists cannot rely on the lucky break of shale gas for ever.

Despite the slowdown, current emissions are still pushing up CO2 in the atmosphere – in fact even faster than before. This seems to be related to other climatic cycles, including the El Niño effect. To stop a bath tub overflowing, it is not enough simply to half-close the tap. The inflow has to be cut off entirely.

We cannot celebrate prematurely. Very half-hearted policies, and luck, have got us to stasis on emissions. To cut carbon quickly enough, we need concerted global action on all fronts.

Robin Mills is the chief executive of Qamar Energy and the author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis.

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