Skeptical Science New Research for Week #4, 2021

Source: SkepticalScience

Diaspora: perception departs from reality

In this collection of articles are two papers currently captivating the attention of people following the science and emergence of climate change, especially the rapid variety we’ve accidentally unleashed and which is  now unfolding around us. The synthesis and review article Earth’s Ice Imbalance  by Slater et al arrives in the same week as Ocean forcing drives glacier retreat in Greenland, Wood et al. Less of a splash was generated by Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance (1992‐2020) from calibrated radar altimetry by Simonson and others (unfortunately not open access). Together the three might be termed a dense, slushy snowball to our collective ear, an unmistakable signal. We’re losing ice at a terrific rate, with our expectations of this showing signs of being underestimations. 

Despite the growing abundance of increasingly refined theoretical description amply supported by increasingly obvious evidence such as “ice melts when it gets warmer,” there’s yet a group of people with perceptions quite outside of what we know, in a state of denial. These folks come in various styles. Analogizing to gravitation, denial comes in a range of extremity from “there is no gravitation” through “big G isn’t known,” all the way to “yes, but the sign of G is opposite.” All of these claims of course fail in the face of dropping a bowling ball into an arrangement of glassware. We might not be able to predict the exact vectors of all resulting shards, but the general effects are perfectly foreseeable. We have a good grasp of the kinetic energy of the ball delivered to the glassware, thanks to our understanding of gravitation. We know about the fracture mechanics of glass well enough to predict that stemware will be broken. It’s fairly obvious that the glassware won’t be better after the impact. 

People in a state of professed scientific denial supported by alternative perceptions are arguably more interesting and mysterious and thus attractively curious than plain old physics. Human nature remains a puzzle manifesting itself in unsolved problems. Why would somebody insist that “2+2=3.5,” despite all evidence to the contrary? Thus it’s not surprising but rather inevitable that science deniers themselves become the repeated subject of scientific investigation.

We might not be able to answer the “why” questions right now, but we can work to characterize and describe the unusual nature of people in a state of denial. This week we find two interesting investigations of this kind.

A team led by Stefano Caserini takes a deep dive into the composition of signatories of an anti-scientific petition in Evaluating the scientific credentials of the supporters of public petitions denying anthropogenic climate change, evaluating signers in a way that fully exposes how generally  irrelevant these people are to helping the public to a good understanding of our climate predicament. Among their findings: 

When limiting the analysis to the climate change literature in the last 10 years (2010–2019, a very long period in fast-developing fields such as climate science), the numbers change drastically (Fig. 1e). The total output of the promoters and signatories amounts to 24 unique articles, or to 0.026 articles per capita per year. 63% of the promoters have no relevant publications. Only 5 of these 24 articles appear in the top 10 journals for number of published articles or impact factor in categories relevant to climate change. The 24 articles have been cited 652 times, of which 235 (36%) are self-citations.

The article is distinguished by its highly granular and detailed approach. Open access, free to read. 

Meanwhile, Busch and Ledrick take a look at what might be called “professional deniers,” in Climate change—that is not real! A comparative analysis of climate-sceptic think tanks in the USA and Germany. It’s perhaps not so surprising to find that with essentially no good cards left to play, “think tank” purveyors of denial seem to find themselves in a state of increasing bankruptcy in terms of being able to advance their arguments in the face of incontrovertible evidence. Some claims have needed to be entirely retired, apparently, while the only path to growth seems to be in the direction of increasing use of generalities, those proving inadequate in the face of emergent facts. As detailed by the authors, these professional denial shops seem to be in a state of arrested development and unable to confront the reality of the Paris Agreement.

Busch and Ledrick’s publication is a wonderful resource in its rich cargo of supporting citations alone, let alone the authors’ intriguing findings. Happily, this work is also open access. 

121 Articles  

Observations of climate change, effects

Trends in the Extremes of Environments Associated with Severe U.S. Thunderstorms

Deep waters in British Columbia mainland fjords show rapid warming and deoxygenation from 1951 to 2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091094

Review article: Earth’s ice imbalance
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-233-2021

Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance (1992‐2020) from calibrated radar altimetry
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091216

Observed and projected changes in global climate zones based on Köppen climate classification
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.701

Evolution of observed and modelled temperatures in Finland in 1901–2018 and potential dynamical reasons for the differences
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7024

Human-Perceived Temperature Changes in South Korea and Their Association with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0344.1

An asymmetric variation of hot and cold SST extremes in the China Seas during the recent warming hiatus period
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-79854-2

Impact of climate change on North-East India (NEI) summer monsoon rainfall
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02994-5

Firn changes at Colle Gnifetti revealed with a high-resolution process-based physical model approach
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-367 (preprint)

Geographic variation and temporal trends in ice phenology in Norwegian lakes over a century
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-374 (preprint)

Arctic sea ice decline preconditions events of anomalously low sea ice volume export through Fram Strait in the early 21st century
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016607

Climate change and teleconnections amplify lake stratification with differential local controls of surface water warming and deep water cooling
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090959

Late twentieth century increase in northern Spitsbergen (Svalbard) glacier-derived runoff tracked by coralline algal Ba/Ca ratios
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05642-x

Observed rainfall changes in the past century (1901–2019) over the wettest place on Earth
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcf78

Evolution of the East Asian winter land temperature trends during 1961–2018: role of internal variability and external forcing

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Implementing Full Spatial Coverage in NOAA’s Global Temperature Analysis
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090873

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects MSWE

U.S. Tropical Cyclone Activity in the 2030s Based on Projected Changes in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

Future changes in Northern Hemisphere summer weather persistence linked to projected Arctic warming
Open Access DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091603

Extreme sub‐hourly precipitation intensities scale close to the Clausius‐Clapeyron rate over Europe
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl089506

Historical and projected changes in the Southern Hemisphere surface westerlies
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504354.1

Sea Surface Salinity Change since 1950: Internal Variability versus Anthropogenic Forcing
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0331.1

Future Changes in Seasonality in East Africa from Regional Simulations with Explicit and Parameterized Convection

Exploring Inland Tropical Cyclone Rainfall and Tornadoes under Future Climate Conditions through a Case Study of Hurricane Ivan
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-20-0090.1

Efficient statistical approach to develop intensity-duration-frequency curves for precipitation and runoff under future climate
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02963-y

Hydroclimatic changes in Alaska portrayed by a high-resolution regional climate simulation
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02956-x (preprint)

Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols – a multi-model comparison
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-853-2021

The Indian Ocean Dipole response to external forcing in coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 simulations of the last millennium
DOI: 10.1177/0959683620988033

Saltwater intrusion in a Mediterranean delta under a changing climate
DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016437

A Lagrangian perspective on tropical anvil cloud lifecycle in present and future climate
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10503589.1

The Choco low‐level jet: past, present and future
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05611-w

Twenty-first century regional temperature response in Chile based on empirical-statistical downscaling
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05620-9

Projected changes of stratospheric final warmings in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres by CMIP5/6 models
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05647-6

A robust method to develop future rainfall IDF curves under climate change condition in two major basins of Iran
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03540-0

Projections of river floods in Europe using EURO‐CORDEX, CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7014

Assessment of the potential changes in low flow projections estimated by CMIP5 climate models at monthly and seasonal scales
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7015

Future changes in precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd7ad

Advances in climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

An Evaluation of the Performance of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Version 3

An Initialized Attribution Method for Extreme Events on Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scales
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-1021.1

Multi-Aspect Assessment of CMIP6 Models for Arctic Sea Ice Simulation
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0522.1

Global impact of cloud longwave scattering in an atmosphere‐only general circulation model simulation
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033968

The climate response to increased cloud liquid water over the Arctic in CESM1: a sensitivity study of Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen process

High‐resolution global climate simulations: representation of cities
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1002/joc.7018

Climate models capture key features of extreme precipitation probabilities across regions
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd351

Cryosphere & climate change

Review article: Earth’s ice imbalance
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-15-233-2021

Ocean forcing drives glacier retreat in Greenland

Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance (1992‐2020) from calibrated radar altimetry
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091216

A 21st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss

Numerical Simulations of Melt-Driven Double-Diffusive Fluxes in a Turbulent Boundary Layer beneath an Ice Shelf
DOI: 10.1175/jpo-d-20-0114.1

Firn changes at Colle Gnifetti revealed with a high-resolution process-based physical model approach
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-367 (preprint)

Geographic variation and temporal trends in ice phenology in Norwegian lakes over a century
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-374 (preprint)

High-resolution inventory to capture glacier disintegration in the Austrian Silvretta
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.5194/tc-2020-376 (preprint)

Remote control of Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf melt rates by the Antarctic Slope Current
Open Access DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016550

Arctic sea ice decline preconditions events of anomalously low sea ice volume export through Fram Strait in the early 21st century
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020jc016607

Late twentieth century increase in northern Spitsbergen (Svalbard) glacier-derived runoff tracked by coralline algal Ba/Ca ratios
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05642-x

Biology & climate change

Leaf trait plasticity alters competitive ability and functioning of simulated tropical trees in response to elevated carbon dioxide
Open Access DOI: 10.1029/2020gb006807

Late afternoon seasonal transition to dissolution in a coral reef: An early warning of a net dissolving ecosystem?
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl090811

Influences of forest fires on the permafrost environment: A review
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2021.01.001

Implications of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on seed quality
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02073-x

Brazilian stingless bees are threatened by habitat conversion and climate change
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-021-01751-9

Precipitation alters the CO2 effect on water‐use efficiency of temperate forests

Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15497

Anthropogenic climate change impacts on copepod trait biogeography
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15499

Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) range contraction and expansion in Europe under changing climate
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15486

Local‐scale climatic refugia offer sanctuary for a habitat‐forming species during a marine heatwave
DOI: 10.1111/1365-2745.13599

GHG sources & sinks, flux

Was Australia a sink or source of CO2 in 2015? Data assimilation using OCO-2 satellite measurements
Open Access DOI: 10.1163/2210-7975_hrd-0837-20180013 (preprint)

Long-term and recent ecohydrological dynamics of patterned peatlands in north-central Quebec (Canada)
DOI: 10.1177/0959683620988051

Global maps of twenty-first century forest carbon fluxes
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00976-6

Sensitivity of 21st century ocean carbon export flux projections to the choice of export depth horizon
DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10504023.1

Multisatellite Imaging of a Gas Well Blowout Enables Quantification of Total Methane Emissions

Constraining Southern Ocean CO2 Flux Uncertainty Using Uncrewed Surface Vehicle Observations
Open Access DOI: 10.1002/essoar.10505700.1

Ecosystem scale implication of soil CO2 concentration dynamics during soil freezing in Alaskan Arctic tundra ecosystems

Carbon budget response of an agriculturally used fen to different soil moisture conditions
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108319

Large‐scale evidence for microbial response and associated carbon release after permafrost thaw
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15487

Effect of compaction on soil CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes from tropical peatland in Sarawak, Malaysia

Carbon footprint of plastic from biomass and recycled feedstock: methodological insights
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11367-020-01853-2

CO2 removal & mitigation science & engineering

Potential and constraints for applying the “4 per 1000 Initiative” in the Caribbean: the case of Guadeloupe
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10113-020-01740-4

Ten golden rules for reforestation to optimize carbon sequestration, biodiversity recovery and livelihood benefits
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15498

Mathematical modeling and optimal control of carbon dioxide emissions from energy sector

Wind, rain, fire and sun: Towards zero carbon electricity for New Zealand
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112109

Decarbonizing China’s power sector by 2030 with consideration of technological progress and cross-regional power transmission
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112150

Comparison of geological models for the simulation of CO2 migration: a case study in Ordos, China

Black carbon

Improved simulations of global black carbon distributions by modifying wet scavenging processes in convective and mixed‐phase clouds
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033890

Aerosols

Aerosol direct radiative effects at the ARM SGP and TWP Sites: Clear skies
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033663

Climate change communications & cognition

Evaluating the scientific credentials of the supporters of public petitions denying anthropogenic climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/16000870.2021.1875727

Climate change—that is not real! A comparative analysis of climate-sceptic think tanks in the USA and Germany
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02962-z

Assembling a coalition of climate change narratives on UK climate action: a focus on the city, countryside, community and home
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02959-8

Culturally mediated perceptions of climate change risks in New Zealand
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02966-9

Making sense of climate change—the lived experience of experts
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02986-5

Climate of hope or doom and gloom? Testing the climate change hope vs. fear communications debate through online videos

Understanding the Links Between Climate Change Risk Perceptions and the Action Response to Inform Climate Services Interventions
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1111/risa.13683

Majority of German citizens, US citizens and climate scientists support policy advocacy by climate researchers and expect greater political engagement
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd4ac

Place-based Climate Change Communication and Engagement in Canada’s Provincial North: Lessons Learned from Climate Champions
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/17524032.2020.1869576

Contesting Coal, Contesting Climate: Materializing the Social Drama of Climate Change in Australia and Germany
DOI: 10.1080/17524032.2020.1865428

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Vulnerabilities of irrigated and rainfed corn to climate change in a humid climate in the Lower Mississippi Delta
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02999-0

Climate change and livelihood resilience capacities in the Mekong Delta: a case study on the transition to rice–shrimp farming in Vietnam’s Kien Giang Province
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02973-w

Synergies and trade-offs for climate-resilient agriculture in India: an agro-climatic zone assessment
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02969-6

How adaptive capacity shapes the Adapt, React, Cope response to climate impacts: insights from small-scale fisheries
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02965-w

Livestock farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change: panel evidence from pastoral areas in China
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02992-7

Modelling climate smart rice-wheat production system in the middle Gangetic plains of India
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03497-6

Potential agro-thermal resources dynamic for double-season rice cultivation across China under greenhouse gas emission scenarios
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03519-x

Implications of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on seed quality
DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-02073-x

Robust optimization approach to two-echelon agricultural cold chain logistics considering carbon emission and stochastic demand
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01236-z

Economics & finance of climate change & mitigation

Loss and damage from climate change and implicit assumptions of sustainable development
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02970-z

Rent Seeking over Tradable Emission Permits
DOI: 10.1007/s10640-020-00531-z

Effects of carbon tax on environment under duopoly
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01222-x

Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2017524118

Climate finance policy in practice: a review of the evidence
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1871313

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Plausible energy demand patterns in a growing global economy with climate policy
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00975-7

Land-based climate change mitigation potentials within the agenda for sustainable development
Open Access DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abc58a

Climate change impacts on human health

The impacts of climate change on occupational heat strain in outdoor workers: A systematic review
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100770

Climate change adaptation & resilience, adaptation & resilience public policy research

Managed retreats by whom and how? Identifying and delineating governance modalities
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100278

Subnational bipartisanship on climate change: evidence from surveys of local and state policymakers
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02964-x

Climatic impacts on water resources in a tropical catchment in Uganda and adaptation measures proposed by resident stakeholders
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02958-9

Storm surge proxies in a data-poor landscape: a practical monitoring method for under-surveyed and -studied communities vulnerable to climate change

Influence of social capital in adopting climate change adaptation strategies: empirical evidence from rural areas of Ambo district in Ethiopia
DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2020.1862741

Climate change adaptation in Indian cities: A review of existing actions and spaces for triple wins
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100783

How adaptive capacity shapes the Adapt, React, Cope response to climate impacts: insights from small-scale fisheries
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02965-w

Progressing the integration of climate change adaptation and disaster risk management in Vanuatu and beyond
Open Access DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100269

Supporting transformative climate adaptation: community-level capacity building and knowledge co-creation in South Africa
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1863180

Climate change impacts on human culture

Projections of river floods in Europe using EURO‐CORDEX, CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7014

Assessment of the potential changes in low flow projections estimated by CMIP5 climate models at monthly and seasonal scales
DOI: 10.1002/joc.7015

Risks to future atoll habitability from climate‐driven environmental changes
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.700

Disaster diaspora and the consequences of economic displacement and climate disruption, including Hurricanes Matthew (October 8, 2016) and Florence (September 14, 2018) in Robeson County, North Carolina
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04529-8

A metric-based assessment of climate and tourism in major cities of Pakistan
DOI: 10.1007/s10668-021-01230-5

Estimating the impacts of climate change on electricity supply infrastructure: A case study of China
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112119

Other

Correlations between sea‐level components are driven by regional climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020ef001825

The Double-Peaked El Niño and Its Physical Processes

The peculiar trajectory of global warming
DOI: 10.1029/2020jd033629

Towards climate resilient peace: an intersectional and degrowth approach
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s11625-021-00906-1

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

The climate commons dilemma: how can humanity solve the commons dilemma for the global climate commons?
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02989-2

European windstorm risk of post Tropical Cyclones and the impact of climate change
Open Access pdf DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091483

 


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How is New Research assembled?

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